节选·Animal Spirits: Confidence and Fairness

The word “confidence” turns up often in business literature. Economists emphasize its predictiv element: Confidence means an expectation of a bright future, but that is not the only way people use it when discussing money. In fact, common usage emphasizes

the word’s implication of trust and belief. Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch once

said he had little use for rationally analytical business plans and projections. He said major business decisions come “straight from the gut.” In the economic crisis starting in 2008, an absence of confidence in the popular sense paralyzed credit markets when lenders could not be certain they would be repaid. Lack of confidence can undermineeconomic policies that might have worked otherwise. 

翻译：

“信心”这个词经常出现在商业文献中。经济学家强调其

预测因素:信心意味着对美好未来的期待，但事实并非如此

人们在讨论钱的时候使用它的唯一方式。事实上，习惯用法强调

这个词的含义是信任和信念。通用电气(General Electric)前首席执行官杰克•韦尔奇(Jack Welch)也曾是如此

他说，他几乎不需要理性地分析商业计划和预测。他说

重大的商业决策来自“直觉”。“在经济危机开始的时候

2008年，人们普遍缺乏信心，导致信贷市场陷入瘫痪

贷款人不能确定他们将得到偿还。缺乏信心会削弱

否则经济政策可能会奏效。

literature      implication     undermineeconomic

文学               含义                 破坏经济的

节选·“Money Illusion”

Irrational money illusion is an aspect of animal spirits. In his 1928 book, The Money Illusion,

Irving Fisher gave an example of a woman whose illusion was that her $50,000 bond

portfolio was still worth as much as it had been years earlier. Surely, the nominal value was

the same, but inflation had eroded its real purchasing power. In the 1960s, economists such

as Paul Samuelson assumed that workers (being subject to money illusion) would bargain

for nominal rather than real wages. Milton Friedman disagreed and said workers were not

subject to money illusion and did take inflation into account in wage negotiations. Both

experts were a bit extreme. Workers do expect salary negotiations to protect them from

inflation. Yet, debt covenants, wage contracts and even corporate financial statements

often don’t include inflation adjustments. Plus, people resist wage cuts when prices drop,

even at the cost of their jobs. So some money illusion seems to exist.

翻译：

“货币幻觉”

非理性的金钱幻觉是动物精神的一个方面。在他1928年出版的《金钱幻觉》一书中，

费雪给出了一个女人的例子她的幻想是她的5万美元债券

投资组合的价值仍与几年前一样高。当然，名义价值是

同样的，但是通货膨胀已经侵蚀了它的实际购买力。在上世纪60年代，经济学家就是这样

正如保罗•萨缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)假设的那样，工人(受制于金钱幻觉)会讨价还价

名义工资而不是实际工资。米尔顿•弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)不同意这种观点，他表示，工人们不是

在工资谈判中确实考虑到了通货膨胀。这两个

专家们有点极端。工人们确实希望通过工资谈判来保护自己

通货膨胀。然而，债务契约、工资合同，甚至公司财务报表

通常不包括通胀调整。另外，当价格下跌时，人们会抵制减薪，

甚至以牺牲他们的工作为代价。因此，某种金钱幻觉似乎是存在的。

Irrational      illusion     nominal

非理性的          错觉          名义上的