购房者或迎来更低房贷

2014年06月16日 澳洲房产之窗



《悉尼晨报》指出,欧洲央行推动利率转为负值的决定让澳大利亚的银行比金融危机以来的任何时候可以拿更便宜的价格借款,这很可能增加他们的利润或削减房主的按揭费用。

澳新银行集团周一晚间在纽约筹集来自美国的投资者的款项总共$ US22.5亿($ 24亿)。该银行支付1.25%,美金面值75万,为期三年的固定债券,这比美国政府的三年国债债券的利率高了40个点。

欧洲央行此举旨是为了阻止英国和美国的金融机构把盈余资金放在欧元区,这会推高欧元,打击出口。

实行负利率的决定意味着美国和英国的大型金融机构很可能会效仿日本投资者,把盈余资金用来购买回报更高的澳元证券。

澳大利亚的银行已经迅速地把握各地金融市场的丰富而廉价的流动性资金聚集起来。上周西太平洋银行集团以金融危机以来的最低回报率出售了价值25亿的住宅按揭抵押证券。

麦格理集团出售了价值10.35亿的资产基础证券 - 主要是澳大利亚汽车及设备的贷款和租约 - 这是自金融危机以来最大的和最便宜的交易。荷兰商业银行也卖12.5亿的RMBS交易。

澳新银行亦在5年期固定利率债券募集$ US12.5亿,支付2.25%,或60个基点,高于美国国债基准5年期和25万美元的3年期浮动利率债券,其所支付的3个月基准利率超过了26个基点。

越容易获得廉价的资金可能会加剧已经在全国的房屋贷款市场严重挫伤的市场份额。也就是说,融资的低成本以及资金的充足性将加剧澳洲房贷市场的竞争。

上个月,澳大利亚审慎监管局担心银行在激烈的市场份额争夺战中不断下降放贷标准,就银行应如何监控和管理他们的抵押贷款风险发布了新的严格的管理准则。

APRA主席约翰·莱克警告称,在房价上涨和激烈竞争的背景下,“APRA是看到贷款具有越来越高风险的证据,并不希望这种趋势继续。”

欧洲央行决定下调其关键利率意味着澳元债券可能会继续有利于境外投资者,这将继续对当地货币增加上涨的压力。

投资者可赚取3.78%的10年期澳大利亚国债,全世界只有11个国家拥有此AAA级信用评级,可拿1.4%的德国国债和1.7%的10年期法国国债作对比。

虽然澳大利亚的银行将迎来低利率,德国储蓄银行和保险公司已经参加反对欧洲央行的降息的活动,因而促使德国强大的央行不得不花费过去的两周给德国记者提供背景简报会,并解释为何需要较低的利率。

本月初,德国储蓄银行和保险公司认为低利率削减将损害储户。德国寿险公司也反对低利率,因为一些公司已售出保证4%回报的产品 - 远高于10年期德国国债1.4%的回报率。德国财长正计划采取措施支持寿险公司,努力满足在低利率的面前同时保证客户的回报。

从澳大利亚的强烈的债务需求看到了澳大利亚的确保对不支付公司债的持有人信用的违约掉期指数,从2010年以来第一次跌破80点。

由世界主要央行实施的极度宽松的货币政策,已经扼杀了全球市场的波动,同时芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(又称VIX)从4月开始一直到上周,下降到一个完整季度,达到2007年首三个月以来的最低水平。

澳洲汇丰银行首席经济学家保罗·布洛克斯汉姆说:“全球范围内,央行继续保持货币政策十分宽松 - 和欧洲人已经进入非常规政策方面的新领域的事实,是正在为银行资金降低成本。

“这就是它应该做的。就是应该让货币环境在这些国家– 甚至全球范围内- 变得更容易”

澳大利亚银行需要在批发市场每年筹集约1千亿,其中大约一半来自于境外。 降低融资成本将同时有利于主要银行和区域银行,并减少他们的压力,以提供有吸引力的利率来吸引本地存款。

The EuropeanCentral Bank's decision to push interest rates into negative territory isallowing Australian banks to borrow more cheaply than at any time since thefinancial crisis and is likely to increase their profits or cut home­owners'mortgage costs.

ANZ BankingGroup raised $US2.25 billion ($2.4 billion) from US investors in New York on ­Mondaynight. The bank is paying 1.25 per cent for $US750,000 in three-year fixednotes, a margin of 40 basis points above benchmark three-year US governmentbonds.

The ECB's movewas aimed at discouraging major US and UK financial institutions from parkingsurplus funds in the euro zone, which pushes the region's currency higher andmakes exports less competitive.

The decisionto impose negative interest rates means that big US and UK financialinstitutions will likely follow the lead of Japanese investors in hoovering uphigh-yielding Australian securities, including bank debt.

Australia'sbanks have been quick to capitalise on the abundant and cheap liquiditysloshing around financial markets. Last week, Westpac Banking Corp sold $2.5billion of residential mortgage-backed securities at the ­lowest yields sincethe financial crisis.

MacquarieGroup sold $1.035 billion of asset-based securities – mainlyAustralian car and equipment loans and leases – whichwas the largest and cheapest such deal since the financial crisis. ING BankAustralia also sold a $1.25 billion RMBS deal.

ANZ alsoraised $US1.25 billion in five-year fixed rate debt, paying 2.25 per cent, or60 basis points above benchmark five-year US government bonds and $250,000 inthree-year floating rate debt, on which it paid 26 basis points above the3-month benchmark rate.

The easyavailability of cheap funding could exacerbate the already bruising battle formarket share in the country's home loan market.

Last month,the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, which is worried that banks aredropping lending standards in the fierce battle for market share, issued tough newguidelines on how banks should monitor and ­manage their mortgage risks.

APRA chairmanJohn Laker warned that against the backdrop of rising house prices and strongcompetition,"APRA is seeing increasing evidence of lending withhigher-risk charac­teristics and it does not want this trend to continue."

The ECB'sdecision to cut its key interest rate means that Australian bonds are likely toremain in favour with offshore investors, which will keep upward pressure onthe local currency.

Investors canearn a yield of 3.78 per cent on 10-year Australian bonds, which is one of only11 countries boasting a triple-A credit rating, compared with 1.4 per cent oncomparable German bonds and 1.7 per cent on French 10-year bonds.

AlthoughAustralia's banks will ­welcome lower rates, German savings banks and insurancecompanies have been campaigning against the ECB's interest rate cuts, promptingGermany's powerful Bundesbank to spend the past fortnight providing backgroundbriefings to German reporters explaining the need for lower rates.

Earlier thismonth German savings banks and insurance companies warn­ed a cut in interestrates would hurt savers. German life companies are also opposed to low interestrates because some have sold products with guaranteed returns of around 4 percent – well above the 1.4 per cent return on 10-year German bonds. Germany'sfinance minister is planning measures to support life insurers struggling tomeet guaranteed returns to clients in the face of low interest rates.

The voraciousappetite for Australian debt has seen the Australian credit default swap index,which insures ­holders of corporate bonds against non-payment, drop below 80points for the first time since 2010.


Extremelyloose monetary policy by the world's major central banks has ­stifledvolatility in global markets, with the Chicago Board Options ExchangeVolatility Index (known as the VIX) from the start of April through to lastweek falling to its lowest level for a full quarter since the first threemonths of 2007.

HSBC Australiachief economist Paul Bloxham said "globally, the fact that central bankscontinue to keep monetary policy very loose – and the Europeans have enteredinto new ­territory in terms of unconventional policy –is making the cost of capital lower for banks.

"Andthat's what it's supposed to do. It's supposed to make monetary con­ditions inthese countries – and globally – easier."

Australianbanks need to raise about $100 billion a year in wholesale ­markets, about halfof which is raised offshore. Lower funding costs will benefit both the majorand the regional banks, and reduce the pressure on them to offer attractiveinterest rates to lure local deposits.


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