一家领先市场评论机构指出，尽管澳洲房价被严重高估 ，但房价增长料将持续到2015年。

SQM Research 周四发布的的《房地产繁荣与破灭》报告指出，若与名义GDP价格比较，全澳房价被高估了10%以上，本周早些时候公布的国际清算银行报告也警告称澳洲房价被高估，储行则警告说，房价恐怕不会永远上涨。

但SQM报告的作者克里斯多夫（Louis Christopher）表示，没有明显迹象显示房价会下跌。

“最主要的一点就是不要指望市场会在未来一年里突然崩溃。”克里斯多夫说，“房价不会停止上涨。”

报告说，如果经济形势、利率和澳币汇率没有重大变化，那么预计2015年澳洲房价最多可能上涨12%。

悉尼有望成为领头羊，预计涨幅将达到8%到12%之间。

其次是墨尔本，涨幅将介于5%到9%之间，然后是布里斯本，预期涨幅为8%，阿德雷德为7%。

霍巴特房价最高可能上涨6%，但珀斯和堪培拉的涨幅预计都在5%以下。而达尔文的房价要么可能下跌，要么保持平稳。

2013年时，克里斯多夫对今年房价的预测大体上正确，尽管他对珀斯的表现估计过高，而墨尔本、堪培拉和霍巴特的表现则超出他的预料。

珀斯被认为是全澳房价估值最虚高的城市，溢价30%。“在珀斯，矿业热潮已经褪去，一般预期是，那里的经济情况会先恶化再好转，不过那里的房价依然相当高。”克里斯多夫说，“珀斯房价大幅回调的风险升高。”

房价第二虚高的是墨尔本，溢价19.9%，然后是悉尼，溢价17%，和布里斯本，溢价15%。然而，这些城市都有房价被高估的历史。但他并不认为这些城市的房价会出现回调。

“有些地区的房价就是偏高，而且会持续偏高，因为经济面好。”克里斯多夫说，“它们的位置可能很有吸引力，而且房产供应相对于需求受限。”

相反，阿德雷德，霍巴特和堪培拉的房价则被认为是严重偏低。

克里斯多夫说，低利率将推动市场持续上涨至2015年，但要想从2015年涨到2016年，全澳的低经济成长率就非提高不可。“2016年可能是非常有趣的一年，但从现在到那时的时间还长着呢。” 他说。

Property prices forecast to continue rising in 2015

The Advisor 18 September 2014

The housing market will continue its strong momentum wellinto 2015, a leading real estate expert has forecast.

According to the analysis by SQM Research owner LouisChristopher, prices in Australia’s eight capital cities still have room to moveover the coming 12 months.

Mr Christopher forecast an average price rise of five tonine per cent, assuming the official cash rate stayed at 2.5 per cent, the economy remained steady and the Australia dollar remained above US$0.85.

In this scenario, Sydney would continue to record outstandinggrowth of eight to 12 per cent.

Melbourne would grow at five to nine per cent and Brisbaneat five to eight per cent.

There would also be price rises of four to seven per centfor Adelaide, three to six per cent for Hobart and one to four per cent for Perth.

However, the two territory markets could potentially gobackwards.

Canberra’s price movement has been forecast to fall betweena two per cent decrease and a three per cent increase, while Darwin would rangefrom a three per cent drop to a one per cent rise.

Mr Christopher said there was no need to fear a pricingbubble while prices remained high.

“The market is somewhat overvalued, but not by as much aswhat some have very publicly stated. I don’t believe at this stage the marketis in a bubble,” he said.

“Some cities are heading into overvalued territory, but thepoint overall is the market is far from a bubble situation when taking intoaccount historical valuations over the past 30 years.”