9月房价:悉尼微增,墨尔本下跌。
尽管春季房产拍卖市场表现强劲,澳洲最大两个城市的房价明显开始放缓。
RP Data的分析师Tim Lawless说悉尼8月份房价增长了1.8%,而9月份只增长了0.8%,而拍卖清空率则维持在80%左右的高水准。
在墨尔本,8月份房价增长了0.8%后在9月份却出人意料的下跌了0.8%,而拍卖清空率平均为77%。
“看到9月份的房市表现我有点吃惊”Lawless说。
他说通常在拍卖清空率和房价上涨之间有着强烈的正相关。
但是他说如果不看单月的数字而是看9月份的季度数字,悉尼房价上涨了4.1%,而墨尔本上涨了3.7%。
甚至6个月的趋势增幅为5.2%(悉尼)和1.2%(墨尔本).
RP Data的悉尼房价年度增幅已经降低到14.3%,而上个月为16.2%。
墨尔本的房价年度增幅减少到8.1%,而上月为11.7%。
“我不是说月度数据就不重要,但是你需要考虑到整体的趋势”他说。
RP Data公布布里斯班的9月份和季度增幅分别为0.7%和0.6%,阿得雷德为0.9%和3.1%。
珀斯下降了0.4%和0.6%, 堪培拉为-5%和1.4%,霍巴特为-0.3%和-1%,达尔文-1%和1.4%。
全国平均为0.1%和2.9%。、
Property prices in Melbourne and Sydney are apparently flat as a tack, despite an exceptionally strong spring auction market.
RP Data's head of research, Tim Lawless, said after Sydney dwelling prices grew 1.8 per cent in the last month of winter (with quarterly growth over winter of 5 per cent) they rose just 0.8 per cent during September, as auction clearance rates were a boom-like 80 per cent or more.
And in Melbourne, after rising 0.8 per cent in August (and rallying during the three months of winter with an extraordinary 6.4 per cent growth), prices suddenly dropped 0.8 per cent in September, when clearance rates were averaging 77 per cent.
"I was quite surprised at seeing a flat market coming into September," said RP Data's head of research, Tim Lawless.
He said there was usually a strong correlation between auction clearance rates and rising prices.
This was a point raised in a Reserve Bank report last week which said auctions were the best way of measuring property price growth: "We find evidence to suggest that average prices of dwelling sold at auction are informative for forecasting growth in average private treaty prices and average sales prices overall," the authors David Genesove and James Hansen said in the discussion paper 'Predicting Dwelling Prices with Consideration of the Sales Mechanism'.
Mr Lawless said that rather than focusing on the monthly figures a better indicator of the property market were the quarterly figures showing 4.1 per cent growth for Sydney and 3.7 per cent growth for Melbourne.
Or even the six monthly trend of 5.2 per cent growth for Sydney or 1.2 per cent for Melbourne.
RP Data's year-on-year price price growth for Sydney had now dropped to 14.3 per cent, down from 16.2 per cent last month. And the annual figure for Melbourne was now 8.1 per cent, down from 11.7 per cent.
"I'm not saying the monthly data isn't important, but you need to take it in context with the overall trend in the data," he said.
RP Data says Brisbane prices grew 0.7 per cent over September and 0.6 per cent over the quarter; Adelaide prices were up 0.9 per cent over the month (up 3.1 per cent quarterly); Perth prices dropped 0.4 per cent (-0.6 per cent); Canberra -.5 per cent (1.4 per cent); Hobart -0.3 per cent (-1 per cent); Darwin -1 per cent (1.4 per cent) and for the combined capitals 0.1 per cent (2.9 per cent).