美中暂时避免货币战争,川普不再指控中国操纵汇率
Another week, another series of flops byAmerica’s president. Last week, along with reversingcourse on Nato, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellenand the US ExportImport Bank, all of which he ismuch keener on now than he was a week earlier,Donald Trump did not, after all, designate China acurrency manipulator.
美国总统又做出一系列逆转。上周,特朗普(Donald Trump)对北约(Nato)、美联储(FederalReserve)主席珍妮特(Janet Yellen)以及美国进出口银行(US Export-Import Bank)都扭转立场,态度比一周前积极得多。他还终于决定不把中国列为汇率操纵国。
For someone who railed against Beijing’s unfair exchange rate practices, excoriated hispredecessors for failing to confront the issue and swore he would name China as amanipulator on his first day in office, this was quite a climbdown. As it happens, it is aperfectly sensible move. But given that it was coupled with vainglorious comments about thedollar being too strong because of confidence in him.
对于曾经猛轰北京方面不公平汇率实践、指责历届美国总统未能直面这个问题、并称自己在上任第一天就会给中国贴上操纵国标签的特朗普,这是一个相当大的转身。事实上,这也是一个完全明智的举动。但是,鉴于特朗普同时发表了自吹自擂的言论,扬言各方对他的信心导致美元太强,他的大转变似乎在更大程度上表明了一种一如既往的奇葩政策制定方式,而不是有原则和经过深思熟虑的想法改变。
The US could always argue the Chinese currency should be allowed to float completely free ofstate intervention. But it is obviously not in America’s interest to see a sharp appreciationagainst its largest trading partner and risk a destabilisation in the global financial system.
美国总是可以提出,中国的货币应该被允许自由浮动,完全不受国家干预。但是,如果美元相对于美国最大贸易伙伴的货币大幅升值,导致全球金融体系面临不稳定风险,那显然不符合美国的利益。无论如何,与某些汇率“斗士”过于激动的威胁相反,把中国称为一个操纵国,除了授权美国政府在人民币问题上与北京方面谈判(而它已经在这样做)以外,并不会带来其他授权。
The exchange rate dropped somewhat this week after Mr Trump’s comments, but he would bebadly advised to imagine he can efficiently manage the currency through jawboning. One of theways the US dollar has maintained its standing as a reserve currency in the past quarter-century is having successive administrations let it find its own level rather than perpetuallytrying to micromanage it for reasons of international competitiveness.
在特朗普表态之后,美元汇率上周有所下降。但是,如果他以为自己翻翻嘴皮子就能高效率地管理汇率,那么他肯定是得到了糟糕的建议。美元在过去25年保持储备货币地位的方式之一是,历届行政当局让它找到自己的汇率水平,而不是出于国际竞争力原因,没完没了地试图对其进行微观管理。
And while it is welcome Mr Trump is now open to reappointing Ms Yellen as Fed chair, it shouldnot be in the context of interfering with central bank independence. It would be as wrong topress her to keep interest rates low as a matter of principle, which appears to be his currentstance, as it was to attack Ms Yellen during the election campaign for not raising themsooner.
与此同时,尽管特朗普现在对任命耶伦续任美联储主席持开放态度是可喜的,但此举不应该被放在干涉央行独立的背景下。从原则上讲,对耶伦施压、要求她保持低利率(这似乎是特朗普目前的姿态),与他在竞选期间抨击耶伦没有更快加息一样,都是错误的。
It is always pleasing when Mr Trump manages to hit upon a sensible policy and listens to thevoices of reason within his administration. Rather more concerning is the caprice with whichsuch changes seem to happen.
当特朗普最终拿出一项明智政策,聆听他的行政当局内部的理性声音时,总是一件喜事。更令人忧虑的是这类变化似乎反映出的那种任性。
On this occasion, the rest of the world can breathe a sigh of relief that a currency war betweenthe US and China has been averted, at least for a while. But it should not imagine that thepossibility of destructive confrontation in the field of international economics from Mr Trump’sadministration has therefore disappeared.
就事论事,世界其他地方可以松口气,美中之间的货币战争被避免了,至少在一段时间内将是如此。但是世人不应该以为,特朗普政府在国际经济领域挑起破坏性对抗的可能性就此消失了。
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