编者按：澳洲广播公司于5月16日发表了一篇题为《财长在预算案演讲中都不能提中国的名字，澳洲如何实现经济增长？》的评论文章。文中提到，无论西方世界看见或者看不见中国，中国正拖拽着其他新兴经济体一起前进。澳洲的未来在中国，而世界的未来在以中国为主的新兴经济体，西方国家必须改变过去的思维来与这些新兴的国家打交道了。我们特意全文翻译呈现给读者。本文作者Stan Grant 是澳大利亚具有30年经验的资深媒体记者，曾在美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）驻亚洲和中东记者处担任十年的高级记者，在客观看待世界的报道中，获得多项大奖。有意思的是，这篇值得一读并引发思考的文章尽管在澳洲主流媒体发表，但似乎在谷歌引擎中很难被搜索到，这似乎也是一种西方当前态度的隐喻：又想客观思考和看待中国，又不想让人看出他们太过于在乎中国的态度。这种矛盾复杂的心理，既存在于政界，也普遍存在于传媒界。
China, India,Indonesia, Russia, Brazil: What do these five countries have in common?中国、印度、印尼、俄罗斯、巴西，这五个国家有什么共同点？They are the future.Our future depends on them. They are not the West.他们是未来。我们的未来取决于他们。他们不是西方国家。Collectively, theywill account for more than half of all global growth through to 2024, accordingto figures from the International Monetary Fund. Think again about that: fivecountries, 50 percent of growth.根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，总体而言，到2024年他们将占全球所有经济增长的一半以上，再想想看：5个国家，50%的增长。The giant among thefive is, of course, China. It has already surpassed the United States as thebiggest engine of global economic growth — 28 percent annually between 2013 and 2018.毫无疑问，在这5个国家中，中国是巨头。中国已经超过美国，成为全球经济增长的最大引擎——2013-2018年间每年占28%。By the end of thisdecade, China is expected to overtake America as the single biggest economy inthe world. And of the other four countries — Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India — each lists China as its biggest trading partner.在这个10年结束时，中国预计将超过美国成为世界最大单一经济体，并且其他4个国家——巴西、俄罗斯、印尼、印度——每个国家都将中国视为最大贸易伙伴。The IMF says there isno way the global economy can grow unless these countries also grow. Yet inthis week's budget, did we hear mention of any of them?国际货币基金组织认为，除非这些国家的经济也增长，否则全球经济无法增长。但在本周的联邦预算案中，我们有听到他们中的任何一个被提到吗？No. We did not evenhear mention of China. Incredible, given China is Australia's biggest tradingpartner, too.没有。我们甚至没有听到提及中国。难以置信，因为中国也是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。How is Australiahandling this hinge point of history?
澳洲如何应对这一历史转折点？Australia's trade withChina dwarfs its trade with any other country: more than $90 billion, anenormous 43 percent of all our exports. For comparison, the next biggestmarket is Japan, at $19 billion.澳洲与中国的贸易超过了与其他任何国家的贸易：900多亿澳元，占我们出口总额的43%。相比之下，我们的第二大市场是日本，仅为190亿澳元。Trade is equivalent to45 percent of Australian GDP and one in every five jobs in the country.Treasurer JoshFrydenberg has said this budget is about stimulating, spending and creatingjobs. How do we seriously achieve that when our political leaders cannot speakto their counterparts in Beijing? 财长Josh Frydenberg表示，这个预算案是关于激励、消费和创造就业。当我们的政治领袖都不能与北京的同行对话时，又如何能真正实现这些目标？The world is turning,history is turning
In its report The World in 2050, international professional services companyPwC lists what will be the top 10 economies in the world:普华永道在其报告《2050年的世界》中列出了未来世界10大经济体：Where did the West go? The report says simply: today's developing marketswill be tomorrow's economic superpowers.西方国家去哪儿了？报告指出了一个简单的道理：今天的发展中市场将成为明天的超级大国。Outside of the top 10, Vietnam, the Philippines and Nigeria will be thebiggest movers in the rankings.除了这10个国家以外，越南、菲律宾和尼日利亚将成为排名中变动最大的国家。The report compares the E7 (emerging economies) with the G7. In 1995, theE7 were half the size of the G7; by 2015, the E7 had drawn level; by 2040, theE7 could be double the size of the G7.报告将E7（新兴经济体）与G7（七国集团）做了比较。1995年，E7的规模只相当于G7的一半，到2015年时，E7已经与后者持平，到2040年时，E7的体量将是G7的两倍。A Rip Van Winkle "go to sleep and dream away thefuture" approach won't work.《瑞普·凡·温克尔》那种“睡梦中度过未来”的方法是行不通的。
拜登在最近的国会演讲中表示，做空美国从来都不是一个好主意（来源：澳洲广播公司）The West has been battered by war, growinginequality, stagnant wages, terrorism, economic collapse, declining democracyand rising political populism.西方饱受战争、不平等加剧、工资停滞不前、恐怖主义、经济崩溃、民主衰落和政治民粹主义抬头的打击。America —the so-called leader of the free world — is a country damaged by unendingcrisis.美国——所谓的自由世界领袖——是一个被无止尽的危机破坏了的国家。PresidentJoe Biden talks a good game about "America is back" and rebuildingalliances. But how does America lead a world where economic power has sodramatically shifted?拜登总统提出了一个“美国回归”和重建联盟的好戏码。但美国如何领导一个经济实力发生剧变的世界？
Betting against America
In hisrecent speech to Congress to mark the first 100 days of his presidency, JoeBiden said it was never a good idea to bet against America. But that'sprecisely what many countries are doing.最近拜登在纪念就任总统100天的国会演讲中表示，做空美国从来都不是一个好主意，但那正是很多国家正在做的事情。China'smassive Belt and Road Initiative — one of the largest infrastructure andinvestment projects in history, covering 70 countries, 65 percent of theworld's population and 40 percent of gross domestic product — is a bet againstAmerica.中国的大规模“一带一路”倡议是历史上最大的基础设施和投资项目之一，覆盖了70个国家、65%的世界人口和40%的国内生产总值——这就是看空美国。It is part of China's Dream of arejuvenated nation, returned to the apex of global power.这是实现中华民族复兴的中国梦的一部分，重回全球之巅。Australia is caught in the crosshairs of thisglobal historical turn. We are still a European outpost in Asia, a country withhistorical ties to Britain and all in with the US. 澳大利亚正处于这一全球历史转折的十字路口。我们仍然是欧洲在亚洲的前哨，是一个与英国有着历史联系、与美国有密切联系的国家。It hasserved us well, but that world is passing. The geopolitical, economic andmilitary plates are shifting as the world walks ever more treacherous faultlines.But thisisn't the discussion we have been having post-budget.这种联系曾对我们有益，但随着地缘政治、经济和军事板块正在发生变化，世界正走向愈加危险的断层线。Instead,we are talking about debt and deficit and vaccine rollout and possible electiondates. 相反，我们在讨论债务、赤字、疫苗推广和可能的选举日期。Journalistsare engaging in the usual round of predictable "gotcha" questions,and politicians are looking to score tit-for-tat political points.记者们忙于惯常的可预见的的问题，而政客们则在寻求获得针锋相对的政治资本。All around us, the world we knew is givingway to the world we don't truly understand, let alone are truly equipped for.在我们周围，我们所知道的世界正在让位给我们并不真正了解的世界，更不用说真正准备好去面对。China, our biggest trading partner, is now aglobal Voldemort — he who cannot be named.中国，作为澳洲最大的贸易伙伴，现在是一股“只可意会不可言传”的力量存在-不可以点名。But call it what we will — or won't— China looms over our world and it is dragging those other emergingeconomic giants along with it.但不管我们叫它什么或不叫它什么，中国赫然耸立在我们的世界，并正拖拽着其他新兴经济体一起前进。To stay with the movie analogy, for the West,there is no back to the future.用句电影比喻就是，对西方国家来说，没有机会返回未来了。
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