澳元跌向4年来的最低值

2014年10月02日 澳洲大众地产投资集团



澳元跌向4年来的最低值。

受到意外疲软的零售数据拖累,澳元再度下跌,已经接近4年来的最低值。

本地时间开盘后澳元意外的稳定在87.47美分,抵御住对一系列货币都非常强势的美元。

9月份房价只增长0.15的疲软数据首先引发了澳元的抛售,导致后者跌至87.18美分。

雪上加霜的是今天公布的数据显示8月份零售额只增长了0.1%,远低于市场的预期,也低于7月份和6月份的0.4%和0.6%。

在中午澳元跌破了8个月来的新低,一度跌至86.66美分,并接近2010年7月创下的汇率水准。

联邦银行的货币分析师Joseph Capurso说澳元的下跌是受到疲软的本地数据和美国复苏的共同影响。

“美元对大部分货币在上涨,比如日元”他说。

他还提到中国和香港市场由于国庆而休市也是部分原因。

“由于中国和香港市场休市,交易商将使用澳元作为替代物”

随着重要的美国数据将在本周晚些时候出台,澳元的抛售可能会继续下去。

他说强劲的非农数据和ISM制造业指数将导致美元的升值和澳元的进一步贬值。

“我认为在本周澳元会跌至85美分左右”他说。

The Australian dollar has plunged on the back of surprisingly weak retail figures, taking it perilously close to a four-year low.

The dollar had started the local session surprisingly stable at US87.47¢, resisting a greenback that was once again showing its strength against a number of major currencies.

In late afternoon trade the Australian dollar traded as low as US86.63¢ but then took a significant step back and was trading at US86.94¢ at 4.25pm AEST.

If the dollar falls below US86.60¢, its 2014 low, it be hitting levels last seen in July 2010.

Commonwealth bank currency strategist Joseph Capurso said the falling dollar was a combination of both weak local data and the US recovery.

"The US dollar is rising against most currencies. We've seen for example against the Japanese Yen it's now buying 110 yen, the first time since just before the GFC," Mr Capurso said.

"The US dollar is on a bit of a rampage and the Aussie is collateral damage."

Mr Capurso also attributes part of the sell-off to the fact that both Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets are currently closed due to China's National day.

"Given that Hong Kong and mainland China are closed …traders will use the Aussie dollar to proxy," Mr Capurso said.

With important US data coming out later in the week, the Aussie sell-off may well have further to go before it finds the bottom.

Mr Capurso said strong non-farm payrolls and ISM manufacturing index numbers for the US will more than likely see a further appreciation in the greenback and push the Aussie lower still.

"I think it's [the Australian dollar] going to have an '85' handle on it before the end of the week," Mr Capurso said.

In early afternoon on Wednesday trading the Aussie stabilised at around US86.75¢, but many in the market feel further falls are only a matter of time and that a recovery by the Aussie is highly unlikely in the near term.

FXCM market analyst Mr David de Ferranti said a sustained recovery "could prove a difficult feat".

Ironically the companies behind the retail data that helped drive Wednesday's slump are those that potentially stand to benefit the most from the dollar's fall.

Pitcher Partners director David Lane said a lower dollar brings benefits to two industries that Australians regularly engage with: retail and tourism.

A weakening Australian dollar makes items in Australian shops and online stores more attractive relative to their international online competitors.

"A pair of shoes priced at $US200, with $US25 shipping, cost $208 when the Australian dollar was trading at $US1.08," Mr Lane said. "The same pair of shoes would be an outlay of $258 today - a 24 per cent price rise.

"The prospect of being able to try on the shoes, and wear them out of the shop, now becomes more attractive to Australian consumers."

Domestic Christmas holidays also become more attractive than an overseas alternative with a lower Australian dollar, Mr Lane said.


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