Brisbane real estate prices four years after floods

2015年01月16日 澳大利亚悉尼春天投资



Brisbane's inner-city suburbs have recovered faster than any other area hit by the 2011 floods.


Domain Group figures show the median house price has increased by more than 20 per cent since 2010 in the suburbs of Bulimba (29.8 per cent to $980,000), Hawthorne (28.5 per cent to $988,500), New Farm, (26 per cent to $1.17 million), and West End (23.7 per cent to $925,000).


Tennyson has topped the list, with its median house price increasing by 37 per cent, to $842,500, since 2010. Toowoomba's median house price also increased by 14.5 per cent, to $355,000.



But one of Brisbane's worst hit areas, Milton, has remained flat since the worst of the floods on January 12, 2011 - exactly four years ago Monday. Its median house price has increased by just 1.6 per cent since 2010, to $755,750.


Despite Milton stalling, properties have still been bought and sold in that time. For 27-year-old Dan MacKillop, the gamble paid off.


He bought a property which had water just to the floorboards about 18 months after the devastation and believes it was one of the best financial decisions he ever made.



His offer of $535,000 for a three-bedroom house at 19 Blaxland Street, Milton was accepted before auction - $100,000 less than a similar property next door, which was sold before the flood.


"I was happy to pay that amount for just the land value only," he said. "But the house was bad, it didn't pass the building inspection."


Being in a demolition control precinct area, Dan couldn't knock the house down. So he spent $500,000 raising it, renovating it and adding extra rooms. And boy what a change - these days, his home is worth about $1.2 million.



"I think people have a short memory, there's so much demand for inner-city blocks," Mr MacKillop said.


"I prefer the proximity of the city over the risk (of it flooding again) and living further out."


Belle Property agent Anne Fidler sold the property to Mr MacKillop back in 2012, and said the discount at the time was about 10 per cent.


She said the stigma of a flooded house was still there, and people still asked if a recently sold property at 20 Nairn Street, Milton, was flood affected.


But these days, more people were willing to buy a flood-affected property.

"Some people took their punt and chance to buy in an inner-city location, where perhaps otherwise, they might not have been able to," she said.


"Some will do extremely well. They've weighed up the pros and cons. But there's no guarantee it won't happen again. You can't bargain with mother nature."


Brisbane residents will remember that the flood didn't discriminate. Since then, not all areas have fully recovered. The Hamilton median house price is still 15.7 per cent lower than it was in 2010, at $970,000. St Lucia's median house price is down 12.9 per cent ($858,000), along with the Lockyer Valley (down 4.9 per cent to $309,000), and Ipswich (down 1.4 per cent to $320,500.)


The southwest corridor has also remained flat - Chelmer's median house price has increased by 2 per cent to $907,500, Graceville's is up 1.5 per cent to $690,000, and Oxley's has grown by 3.5 per cent, to $475,000.


Domain Group senior economist Andrew Wilson said Ipswich and the Lockyer Valley had been the clear underperformers.


"To what degree that's a reflection of the flood is up for debate," he said. "It's clear Brisbane has been the better performer."


Dr Wilson pointed out the best performing flood-affected suburbs had experienced most of their growth over the past two years, mainly due to "strong demand for higher priced property". So although a jump of 29.8 per cent in a suburb like Bulimba seems high, it's over a four-year period, indicating modest growth of about 7 per cent per year, or about 15 per cent over the past two years.


"There's still some work to do, in terms of prime areas affected by the floods. I think the big picture is that those areas have generally recovered. That's similar to what we saw after the 1974 floods. It's all about that neighbourhood connection, particularly in the prestige suburbs," Dr Wilson said.


Base Estate Agents' Thomas Coussens said prices in the blue-chip suburb of Auchenflower still weren't at the same level as prior to the floods, but were "significantly higher" than in 2012. The median house price is now $805,000, up 10 per cent since 2010.


However, Mr Coussens said although the post-flood bargains had gone, flooded properties still came with a five to 10 per cent discount, depending on the extent of damage.


"The majority of them have been fixed up, there aren't the fire sales that there were then, that was an excellent time to buy," he said.


"Now if it was flooded I'm disclosing it, rather than being asked about it."


However, Mr Coussens said a lot of buyers' agents had a definite "no" when it came to the floods, and refused to buy anything that was affected, no matter what the discount.


"They just don't buy them, as a rule. They're still cautious," he said.


Ray White Sherwood agent Cameron Crouch had a similar view.


He said the first question people used to ask when inspecting a property was whether or not the home flooded.


But it was slowly changing and now, about one in 10 potential buyers would ask.


"It has really dropped in comparison. With all flooded properties, what we have seen with the local area is that people want to be here so much. It's such a desirable area, people just want to get in," he said.


The discount, four years later, depended on the suburb, location, street and also the extent of flooding.


"I wouldn't call it a discount, it's more that you get more people interested in a non-flooded property," Mr Crouch said.


"For flooded properties, it depends on how much water came through, where it came to, and if there was water to the roof in comparison to inside."


On the other hand, flooded properties in cheaper areas such as Oxley were still more difficult to sell.


"In Oxley, it's not as blase as Graceville and Chelmer, because it's the next step down," he said.


"But we sold one recently for a very good price."


That property, at 56 Bayford Street, Oxley, went under contract for $468,000.


Mr Crouch said most buyers thought the flood probably wouldn't happen again. Others did flood checks and took the chance, to buy a better house or to get into a better area.


And these days, there are easy ways to check just how high the water came.


Following the floods, Brisbane City Council established a FloodWise Property Report - allowing potential buyers to type in any address in Brisbane and view the property's ground level in comparison with the 2011 flood waters. Let's hope buyers and sellers won't need another comparison any time soon.


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