澳联储要降息??? 澳元可能进步下跌

2015年04月24日 墨尔本百科



May's seemingly locked in rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia is beginning to come under doubt after slightly stronger than expected inflation data and a jump in the iron ore price pushes some economists to forecast the central bank will hold pat for now.

Two weeks ago, 26 out of 26 economists, surveyed by Bloomberg, were tipping rates to fall by 25 basis points to 2 per cent in May.

While the overwhelming majority are still holding that line, NAB was, on Thursday, the first major bank to publicly call that rates would stay on hold in May. Macquarie and Market Economics are now also predicting the RBA will stay put at its next meeting, while all other 23 economists quoted in the latest Bloomberg survey, published on Friday, are still expecting a cut.

Meanwhile, financial markets are pricing in just a 54 per cent chance of a rate cut in 11 days, down from as much as 80 per cent earlier in April.

Interestingly, of the three dissenting economists, the earliest cut is forecast for August – from Macquarie and NAB. Market Economics sees rates on hold at 2.25 per cent into next year.

The slightly higher than expected inflation data on Wednesday - quarterly consumer price index came in at 0.2 per cent against market expectations of 0.1 per cent and annual core inflation was also a bit higher than forecast - was the latest upbeat set of data pointing to a not-so negative economy.

Over the week, iron ore, for immediate delivery to the port of Qingdao in China, rose 7.6 per cent to $US54.82 a tonne, according to Metal Bulletin.

Last weekend, the People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio of all banks by 100 basis points, boosting expectations of greater activity in China and possibly greater demand for Australia's iron ore.

"This makes the RBA's next meeting an even closer run affair. Although the RBA has indicated that they expect to cut rates further, the past month has delivered upside surprises to local jobs, retail and inflation numbers and now the iron ore price is rallying too," HSBC chief Australia economist Paul Bloxham said.

"A further rally in the iron ore price through next week could see the case for a near term rate cut diminished further."

The central bank has also pointed out recently that rate cuts are not as effective at stimulating growth and lowering the currency as they used to be.

"Our view is that if your levers aren't working as well, then to get the same result you need to pull them more frequently and harder," Capital Economics chief Australia economist Paul Dales said.

"We don't think that the RBA has given up on monetary policy altogether and we still expect that interest rates will be cut from 2.25 per cent to 2 per cent at May's meeting. That said, the recent stronger than expected employment and underlying inflation figures have made this less certain."

While still expecting cuts to occur this year, NAB chief economist Alan Oster said there was evidence that some of the previous rate cuts were having an impact on the local economy – highlighting inflation and surprise unemployment figures.






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